Monday, May 15, 2017

Dollars and Sense

Seminole County has 10 school districts. These districts range from a low of 178 students and 14 teachers to a high of 1,776 students and 100 teachers. The statewide average per district is 380 students and 21 teachers. Only 4 of Seminole County’s school districts meet or exceed the statewide averages of students/ teachers. However, 5 of Seminoles school districts exceed the statewide average to total compensation to the district Superintendent of $92,334.
A quick and dirty analysis of the county points to some very disparate inefficiencies, economies of scale and other glaring deficiencies. Rather than pointing specifically to any one school, I have arbitrarily numbered the districts.
CONSOLIDATION is a dirty word to educators, or, should I say Superintendents. When I talk of consolidation, I am not talking about consolidating schools/ students, initially at least. I am talking about consolidating administrative overhead. I am of the opinion that there should be only one county superintendent for the whole system. Seminole County, one of declining population and student enrollments, is a perfect example of this most urgent need. 
I will provide some examples of these aforementioned deficiencies and diseconomies of scale. School 2 on my list falls well below both the state averages AND county averages of students and teachers but well above the county and state average Superintendent’s total compensation. I have a management background so I will give you my quick assessment. If I removed just the salary of the District Superintendent in this case, I could give each teacher in that district a $7,277 raise or, a $464 increase per student. Think about that. This compares to the most efficient economies of scale in School 7, whereby I could still provide a teacher raise of $1,281 or $72 increase per student. This is one of the disparities I spoke of; even within this county, there are very unevenly distributed dollars and cents.
In Seminole County, the averages are: 521 students, 32 teachers and salary/ benefits for the Superintendent of $96,478. There are only two school districts that meet or exceed that average of 521 students and 3 school districts that meet or exceed 32 teachers. Again however, there are 5 districts that pay above the county average superintendent salary and benefits of $96,478.
What happens in Seminole County when I put my MBA/ Management experience to the task and fully consolidate the school system, starting with Superintendents? I will automatically provide there will be one Superintendent for the entire county system. I immediately incur a savings of $975,000 to spread out for teachers raises of $3,066 annually or for a per student increase of $188, however you wish to present the savings. I have done this without one additional dime from the Legislature.
I will now put on my other hat; as an advisor to the Governor. I will not put $1 more into the local school system, including the issuance of State G.O. or State Revenue Bonds, until two things are accomplished. 1—Consolidation, beginning with one County Superintendent, abolishing District Superintendents. 2—Local funding will return to 2/3 of the total funding for local schools, to be accomplished incrementally or otherwise, as it was as recently as 1983.
Consolidation of infrastructure or students need not even enter into the conversation. That conversation can take place as infrastructure has outlived its useful life and the County Superintendent/ County Board of Education determines that either students are absorbed into a nearby school[s], or a new structure needs to be financed. This is accomplished by attrition, not by a forced cause of action. Assuming both 1 and 2 above have been accomplished, State G.O. or Revenue Bonds can be put to a vote of the County for new or rehabilitated infrastructure.
It is guaranteed that this will “fix” local schools in Oklahoma. Do we wish to fix the schools or bitch at the Governor/ Legislature for something that WE, at the local level, did to break the system? The SHS building is not broken; it is the system that is broken. It is dollars and sense and nothing but.

Thursday, May 11, 2017

Polls Are Wrong AGAIN!!!

Polls Are Wrong Again
Mark Penn
The Hill

Today we live in a polling bubble – surveys taken from the perches in New York, Washington and Los Angeles may be obscuring rather than illuminating many of the underlying views and trends of the American electorate.
How else can one explain that although many polls showed a close race last November, almost no one (myself included) predicted a lopsided victory for Donald Trump in the Electoral College. Most media analysts and modelers concluded a Hillary Clinton victory was in the bag. One Princeton professor even agreed to eat a bug if Trump won.
As President Trump enters his 100th day, several of the same organizations are using their polls to proclaim that he has had the worst start of any modern president and the worst ratings of a president at this time in his presidency. While Trump is no FDR when it comes to forming a political coalition, a fairer reading of the polls and the election results shows his performance is probably 5 or 6 points better than is being touted and that his base of support with which he won the election remains intact.
There are several reasons for this mismatch between likely reality and the interpretations we are seeing. Most polls have moved away from voters or likely voters to U.S. adults with no screen for registration or even citizenship. And the questions often focus on storylines and narratives critical of Trump. Rarely are they written from the perspective of having missed the major swings and economic discontent that upended the election.
The current crop of stories also sets Trump ratings expectations, as though America went through the typical process of coming together around the winner. Instead we had recounts, Russian conspiracies, investigations and rallies unlike any seen after any election. The country was sharply politically divided on Election Day and remains that way today. That is the backdrop of any realistic assessment of what is happening in America.
But there are some facts and trends that are being missed in the polls.
First, Trump is likely NOT at 40 percent approval with the American electorate. He is likely higher. Trump got 46.1 percent of the popular vote, several million votes less than Clinton did, but neither candidate got a majority. Six million voters opted for a libertarian candidate and most of those votes would never go to a liberal Democrat. And when all of the congressional votes were tallied, Republicans got 3 million more votes than the Democrats and won a majority of both the popular vote and of the seats in Congress.  
The recent special election in Georgia came out about the same as the Trump/Hillary vote, with Republicans nosing out Democrats. As The Washington Post poll reported, a replay of the Trump/Hillary race would today come out more for Trump than Hillary.
So what is the disconnect between polls that show his job rating at 40 and the electoral results? The major network polls all now report “U.S adults” as the sampling frame, not people who voted in the last election or expect to vote in the next one. The non-voters include 11 million undocumented aliens and a lot of folks who liked neither candidate and stayed home, as well as younger people who have lower rates of participation. These polls should not be confused with the views of the American electorate.
If you look just at the past voters, Trump is holding his base – The Washington Post said that 94 percent of Trump voters approve of the job he is doing. That would be 43.1 percent of the voting electorate. Trump then conservatively gets 10 percent approval from the remaining voters (30 percent from voters to other candidates and 8 percent among Clinton voters) which would give him another 5 percent or about 48 percent approval among the group that voted in the last election. That’s a more realistic assessment. And attitudes towards the economy are surging, which is usually good news for whoever occupies the White House.
Third, the media echo chamber has, I think, made it more difficult for people to express their political views, especially to live interviewers. With the growing gender gap, I’m not sure most men are even telling their spouses or partners what their real views are on the president. In a recent Harvard Harris poll we did, only about 60 percent in the country now feel free enough to express their views to friends and family.
Consequently, it's no surprise that polls done online show a consistently better picture for Trump than most live interviewer polling, and today reaching America through the phone is an increasingly difficult task compared to new methods available through the internet.
But another piece of this polling bubble is also created by the narrow questioning in many of the polls. Many of the hot-button issues and expressions Trump uses are rarely if ever polled compared to questions about Russian election interference. No major poll in five years had polled on the support for local law enforcement contacting immigration authorities when they arrest someone, for instance. While many polls have picked up the genuine sympathy Americans have for “Dreamers” or for those who work hard and pay taxes, none of the polls examined what they think should be done with undocumented aliens who are arrested for crimes, or the deep support out there for something like Kate’s law.
Trump campaigned on a unique set of issues that indicted bad trade deals for economic dislocation, supported the police over the Black Lives Matter movement, called for making NATO members pay their fair share, and deporting criminal undocumented aliens. He called for repeal and replacing ObamaCare, lower taxes, more immigration police and a border wall paid for by Mexico.
You will find plenty of polling on what a bad idea Americans think the wall is and on the “Muslim ban” (often without even mentioning security), but where is the polling on the rest of his themes and messages? On the power of “Buy American, Hire American”? On tax cuts to stimulate jobs?
In the end, Trump had a fairly powerful message that spoke to a lot of voters. He is now attempting to turn that message into policy. So far, the results have been mixed. The Ryan healthcare plan was neither fish nor fowl and didn't immediately lower premiums, making ObamaCare look better. The executive order on immigration was a Steve Bannon-led disaster. But despite these two clear setbacks, we should not be too quick to dismiss and trivialize the overall power of the rest of his message.
That was the ultimate mistake of 2016 and the polling bubble: The election turned not on Hollywood Access or Huma Abadein’s laptop, it turned on serious issues too easily dismissed by polling focused on Trump’s temperament, conflict of interest, tweets and Russian conspiracies. And because none of the pollsters or analysts saw it that way, they concluded that Trump, the developer/entertainer, could not possibly win even if the polls had in fact tightened up.
So as we enter the second hundred days, Trump has not crossed the 50 percent mark to expand his base, but he is also not down at 40 percent. On key issues he has a lot of support, especially when it comes to America being taken advantage of by its allies and trading partners, failing to stand up to its red lines, and the need for change that drains the corruption and gridlock of Washington. Don’t let the polling bubble obscure the fact that the forces – pro and con – that produced the surprise upset last November are just as powerful today.

Mark Penn is managing partner of the Stagwell Group and polled for President Clinton for 6 years. He also co-directs the Harvard-Harris Poll.



Polling Is Not So Easy - If You Want to Do It Right

Polling Is Not So Easy
If You Wish to Do It RIGHT
I spoke often during the election, especially in the last 2 week run-up to the election. Some of you may recall that I said DO NOT LISTEN TO THE POLLS. Neither campaign did, nor should YOU. Inside the campaigns, they have what are Internal Tracking Polls. They are relatively expensive to conduct but very, very accurate. YOU will never see these unless you are inside the campaign. They are NOT national polls. They are state by state polls and reflect the Electoral Process itself [Hint: We are a Constitutional Republic, not a Free-for-All, South of the Border, Banana Republic, “Democracy”]. They use very scientific methods, especially considering the Stratified Random Sampling [SRS], NOT Random Sampling. SRS is a mirror image of the in-state population. How many Ds, how many Rs, how many Is, how many Ls, black, white, Hispanic, 10 year age brackets, etc., etc. It is a true snapshot of the population. It is also issues oriented so it crosses hard political lines. This is done in each State!
I had predicted that Clinton was dead even 10 days prior to the election. I also provided an Electoral Map on Facebook that showed that Minnesota, Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia and N Carolina were not only in play but that Trump was making strong favorable movements in those states. Some of my FB Friends were quite dismissive but also rather nasty in saying I was borderline nuts. Well, guess who the nuts were. I have been in this campaign game for many years. I have been inside the campaigns at the national, state and local levels.
I prefer to quote someone other than myself so that it gives you an independent view, not my own. The link provided here is to a story written by Mark Penn. Mark and I have known each other for longer than either prefer to admit. He is one of those Inside Campaign Tracking Polls Gurus. You will hear an almost identical rendition from Mark or me. We come from a very similar political track for quite a number of years. Polling correctly and professionally is mostly science but also with a twist of art, instinct and a helluva lot of experience. You simply will NOT get that on Main Stream Media. You will never see Mark interviewed during the election cycle either. He gets paid big dollars and so does his counterpart who was doing the polling inside the Trump campaign. What you saw interviewed were national pollsters and they almost always never get it right unless by sheer accident. That’s it! National Polls are just not worth spit.
These 100 Day National Pollsters are so far off that it is laughable. However, they like it that way because it provides a service for the spin-meisters and MSM pundits. They are wetting on your leg and telling you it’s raining. Their profession is Liar’s Poker, not Journalism. Mark would love to tell you what he is seeing in the polls is just the opposite; however, Mark is a Pro. He knows better and now so should YOU. You should also know that, of the States that elected Trump, he won the popular vote by 7.5 Million—that is the only “Popular” Vote that counts.
Don’t take it from me, take it from Mark:


The Russkies Did It

The Russkies Did It
Steve Barnes Lost by 56 Votes
Or Did He?
Did Steve Barnes lose by 56 votes? Not! The Libertarian garnered 33 votes and a Libertarian would not vote for a democrat. Thus, Steve Barnes lost by 89 votes, in reality. Get over it. Was it Russian interference? That is what the DNC would have us believe.
We just had two special elections—Georgia’s 6th and Kansas 4th to fill vacancies due to two members being appointed to the Trump Cabinet. When I heard the DNC harping that they had a real shot to win those seats, I laughed. Did the Russkies win those two seats for the GOP?
Trump won 37 States in the Electoral College and HRC won 13, a new low, underline LOW! The GOP now owns 4,170 State Legislature Seats to 3,129 for the DNC. The GOP owns 33 Governors seats and 32 State Legislatures. You should know that the Governor of ANY State is the de facto Electoral Boss. The GOP owns 2,623 Counties vs. 489 for the DNC. That is where the rubber meets the road—local grassroots. Period! Is this a recent phenomenon? Hell NO, the shift began to take form in 1980. Did the Russians do it?
The new DNC Chairman, Tom Perez, an avowed Marxist, just announced the firing of all DNC staff. Good move—however, who is going to fire that freak? The problem is the message and the messengers, pictured below. Do you thing the message or messengers are having any effect on those states now owned by the GOP? The Counties? The Governors? The State Legislatures/ Legislators? I do, but it ain’t gonna win them NOTHIN’—no elections, no special elections, no NOTHIN’. It/ they will only exacerbate an already hopeless situation they carved out by parting with the Party of Jefferson. There simply is no Democratic party, in effect.
The Democratic Party does not even have a vote in either chamber of Congress. You will hear that it takes 60 votes to pass legislation, of a certain kind, in the Senate—the Ds will simply Filibuster and 60 votes are required to “Invoke Cloture”. Here is a little something everyone needs to understand—they know it and I know it, having served as staff in Congress:
Try to find “filibuster” or “cloture” in the US Constitution. Hint—they are not there. There is not even any statutory authority for either. It is a Senate Rule ONLY. All the Majority Leader is required to do is Suspend the Rules and voila, no filibuster, no cloture required. By the Constitution, the Supreme Law of the Land, and Statutes, pursuant thereto, a Simple Majority ONLY is required to pass law, in either chamber, just as was done in the SCOTUS Confirmation of Neil Gorsuch. That’s it—just disabuse yosef of any other doofus notion; it is a myth.
The Democratic Party does not even have hope of their vote affecting anything. That is why they are on TV every day prattling and lying like dogs, digging their hole deeper and deeper and deeper. Is it working? I would stipulate that all they remind me of is a bus load of drunken, knife-wielding caballeros, yelping at a cock fight in Nogales. Good luck, George Soros! Bang, bang, de la morte’…
The overriding factor that Trumps all of the above is the US Supreme Court. It is practically a given that, by the time of the next full session of the Court, about this time next year, there will be two more new members, due to retirements that will make this a 7-2 Constitutional Originalist Supreme Court. Spurious Case Law advocates will be rendered insignificant. Why is that so important?
Try to find healthcare or insurance or anything like it in the Constitution. It’s just not there. The GOP lawmakers know this too; thus, they can pass anything to appease their squeaking constituents, knowing the new SCOTUS will strike any such bill down. It can only be accomplished by a Constitutional Amendment. Period!
Until we are rid the pictured messengers and message of the present “Democratic” Party, we will have neither voice nor vote.

ONLY Thomas Jefferson can breathe life back into this Party.




Thursday, April 27, 2017

Phylogenetic Tree CTS4528

Updated Phylogenetic Tree CTS4528
Thank you Dick Struve for updating the phylogenetic tree—fascinating stuff. I noted that you still have me in Ireland as my MRCA, as it should be. I will be updating that at the various sites to Wales, since I have recently learned where we fit on the Gwaithfoed Tree. What was unknown until recently is whether we descended from Mathew ap Ieuan through Daffyd ap Mathew or Robert ap Mathew. I have resolved that now to my utmost satisfaction. Clearly, both would have the same DNA, assuming there was no Non-Paternal Event [NPE] mix-up; however, I had to make that connection to complete the circle, so to speak. I should say at this point, this is the result of family research since 1986, having collaborated with the family elders who have been at this far longer.
          It goes without saying that my research has been augmented by DNA testing. I plan to do the Big Y when it fits in my budget. The missing link was our immigrant, James Matthews Sr., as we refer to him, in 1718, from N Ireland to the port of Boston on the Ship Elizabeth. What was not known however was his parentage until now. Without going into the plethora of detail of how that was finally determined, putting together 2+2=4, his father was Robert Mathew II of Ballynure. His Father in Law to be was John McGill, father of Mary, one mile away in Ballyeaston. James’ immigrant forbear from Wales was William ap Robert Mathew m. Elizabeth Macdonald. That immigration occurred about 1607. William preceded James by 5 generations, his 3rd G-Grandfather and my 10th G-Grandfather. Five generations preceding William is Robert ap Mathew, son of Mathew ap Ieuan and brother of Sir Daffyd ap Mathew.
          Mathew ap Ieuan was the beginning of the surname Mathew. He was also Sir Knight, 8th Lord of Grosmont and a Lords Marcher. It is also known that he was a collaborator with Owain Glyndwr in the Marcher Rebellion. He and his spouse, Catherine f Jenkin Fleming, were charged with Treason but later pardoned by Henry IV, 1 September 1407. engaged in litigation with the Bishop of Llandaff and was at feud with the Turbervilles and the younger branch of the Flemings. These disputes were arising from his claim through marriage to the Lordship of Llandaff and the Senechalship and Temporalitites of that See, as well to the manors of Candleston, Corntown, St. George and Merthyr Mawr, and half the manors of Penllyne and Wenvoe. He was buried in Llandaff Cathedral in 1424. He is 12th from “Gwaithfoed”.
          As I have noted previously, here on our Haplogroup FB Site and otherwise, I was engaged to update the various generally accepted genealogies [Bartrum & Clark] of the descendants of “Gwaithfoed” by J. Barry Davies. My part of the undertaking was to splice the Old Country Mathew Family with the New World Mathew Family. Following that, I did my own research into “Gwaithfoed” which was later reduced to writing in a self-published book. Again, I won’t go into all the details since much is included at my FB Site and book: https://www.facebook.com/Gwaithfoed/ and the book itself.
          The fact that this fabled Lord “Gwaithfoed” is a pseudonym is one of a few characteristics of the Tribes of South Wales that MUST be known; the first being that many of these Lords went solely by their pseudonym or moniker. That is but one characteristics that you would not know if your knowledge of South Wales was from Angle, Saxon or Frankish chroniclers, who would not know a pseudonym from a salamander, especially the Welsh use of pseudonyms and why that was done.
          It is also true that these foreign chroniclers would either not know, or would not admit that the original inhabitants of S. Wales were some very well-known tribes from the East. It was quite well known by Edward [III], by the grace of God King of England, Lord of Ireland and Duke of Aquitaine, that the father of Mathew ap Ieuan, Ieuan ap Gruffudd Gethyn, was the Lord of the Talvan aka Tal y Van Tribe. It was also known where the historical homeland of this tribe was located. This was chronicled in the File of Twelve [Tribes] Acquittances on parchment, by "Robert de Prestebury, the lieutenant of Sir John Giffard de Brymesfeld, Custodian of the lands which were of Gilbert de Clare, formerly Earl of Gloucester and Hertford, in Glammorgan and Morgannou." Witness Myself at Westminster, the 19th day of June in the ninth year of Our reign [1331]. By the King Himself." [King Edward [III]  [Fragment of yellow seal.] Acquittances.
          Another characteristic of these Welsh is that it was REQUIRED, especially by the Lords and “landed” to know your 9 preceding generations. Thus, Ieuan ap Gruffudd Gethyn would know his 9th predecessor was Morgan Mawr, grandfather of the “Gwaithfoed”. This particular “Gwaithfoed” was in fact, Lord Ythael Ddu ap Owain. He was also known as Einydd, depending upon which chronicler was setting this out to writing.  Ithel or Ythel, son of Owain, was a valorous prince and had a palace at Ystradywain and another summer house called Ton Ithel ddu. He was called Ithel Ddu from his black Hair, &; beard. He was also known as Lord of Caerdigan and Gwynfai. He too would have known his 9th predecessor, Arthmael [II] ap Meurig; and so on and so on it goes… His brother was also likely his Blegywryd, Hywell ap Owain. Later, that fell to Aeddan ap “Gwaithfoed”.
          By now the foreign chroniclers would be so confused as to be rendered daffy. Firstly, they thought Gwaithfoed was a name, not a pseudonym/ title. The same is true with respect to the “Blegywryd”. There was a Blegywryd to each Lord in every generation. The same with respect to “Iorwerth”; it is a title, not a name. The same is true of “Cynferth”, a title, not a surname. The most important of these was the Blegywryd. He was the one who was responsible for the laws/ history of the Cymru. These laws were never reduced to writing—they were mnemonic and mnemonic ONLY. That is why the “Laws of Hywel” are a joke. Hywel is of the purported 15 tribes of N Wales. Either he was hoodwinked by a Blegywryd or he made them up. These were NOT the Laws kept by the Blegywryd even back to the Tal y Van homeland and even before that. This is another characteristic of the Cymru or Khumry that was lost on the foreign chroniclers.
          One characteristic of these Lords is the one that served to confuse them more than any other. They were looking at as many 6 lineages of this particular Lord that were attributed to him and saying that he was either multiple persons or some other contrived explanation that he could not be who he was said to be. It is actually a fairly simple explanation. There were two lineages ascribed to Ythael Ddu—maternal and paternal. His spouse would also have both a maternal and paternal lineage/ tribal symbol. Since, we’ll call him Gwaithfoed for purposes of brevity, he had two “wives”, his descendants would have Gwaithfoed’s and whichever mother they had as a lineage, thus four different tribal symbols on their shield or Coat of Arms; and so on and so on…
          The most important characteristic of the Welsh is the practice of gavelkind vs. primogeniture by the Angles, Saxons and otherwise. It was of paramount importance to the Welsh to “keep it in the family”, to protect the bloodline. This sometimes resulted in keeping it maybe, a little too close. During the time of the Gwaithfoed, this practice drew a great deal of consternation and criticism from Roman clerics. That drew only snickers and lampooning from the Welsh chieftains. This surfaced especially with the birth of Iestyn ap Gwrgan[t], whereby the clerics disavowed his lineage and did a rewrite of his parentage, further confusing these genealogies. That has been written about at length by some of the Welsh chroniclers, who disavowed the role of Rome in Wales. When in Wales…
          In short, these foreign chroniclers never found out who this guy was nor could they if they lived 9 lives each. There were, however real Welsh chroniclers who did know who he was and if you just follow their tract, you can indeed learn who he was. Again, I cannot put it all down here but it is documented in my book. As I have stated previously, the Tal y Van Tribe came to S Wales from the shores of the Lake of the Van in E Anatolia. So, if all of this is accurate, as I believe it to be, my SNP should be prevalent in what is now Turkey, as well as S Wales, Ireland as well the USofA. Make of it what you will. It is fairly well know the trek taken by these Tribes to get to S Wales, as well as some of their other jumping off points en route to their final destination but you won’t get that from the foreign chroniclers. They are convinced that the center of the universe is Greco-Roman and that all devolved from there…Bless their hearts.
          Here are some other titles the nitwits have chronicled as names of persons, FYI:
Titles & Pseudonyms
Beli Mawr is not a name, but a title or pseudonym = Beli = tumult and Mawr means great.
When these nitwits refer to Beli Mawr, they are referring to King Dingad, son of Annyne Grych.
Caswallon is not a name but a title = Viceroy
When these nitwits mistakenly refer to Caswallon, they are likely referring to Aeneasthe Rugged”, son of King Dingad. He was a Caswallon by title.
Cynfelyn is not a name = yellow hair
When these nitwits refer to Cynfelyn, they are likely referring to Prince Greidiol. This is also a pseudonym in that it means to scorch or burn.
Cuneda is not a name: Cun = lord and edau = restoration or, Lord of the Restoration.
Gwrtheyrn is not a name = monarch of men. Gwrtheyrn is known to the English as Vortigern.
In Essyllwg [Gwent], the King was also the military commander and titled asDragon or Uthyr-pen-dragon = wonderful head of dragons or dragoons
When the military commander was another experienced or capable PrinceWledig = Legate
The Senior King = Teyrn = Monarch
Regional Kings = Brenin
Cuneda Wledig = Cun = Lord of the Restoration = Edau, Wledig = Legate; his name being, Eternalis Vedomavus.
Ail-teyrn = Regent
Cadfan = Prominent in Battle
Caswallon = Ruler of a Separated State, aka Viceroy in Lloegres [England]
Gwaednerth = Mighty in Blood
Cadwallader = Battle Sovereign
Dydd [as in Caer dydd] = agreement
Gwaithfoed or Gwaithfeydd = job or work [one who performs good works]. This may have to do with weaponry, sword in particular--in the proper vernacular; and/ or a builder of forts/castles, and/ or the practice of common law, and/ or prominent in battle, and/ or all or some of the above. This Gwaithfoed was often referred to as the Brenin [See above]
In addition, we have the Iorwerth, also supposedly a person. This is a name/pseudonym we see often in Wales, but what if we could break it down? I + or = the Lord. Werth = worth or value. Could it then mean, worthy of the Lord? After all, these laws are often referred to as “God’s Laws”.
Cyfnerth, supposedly referenced a person, but as we shall see, another title; all one word in this case = to make firm, steady, support; to strengthen, to make compact, to corroborate, and to confirmEditor.
Blegywryd was doctor of civil and canon law.
          Considering the above, is it any wonder that S Wales genealogies are such a botched mishmash of fables and tall tales?
S Wales Tribes:
Maghya
Kybour
Bagh
Seinghenyth supra-kaach
Glen Rotheny
Meskyn
Tal y Van
Ruthyn aka Ruthin
Glinnogor
Tyerarlth aka Tyrearlth
Neeth
Avan or Avon
Boviarton
Llanblethian
Kenfigge
Egliskeynor
This is land long-held by the old Welsh Tribes.  "Lordshippes Merchers" land.  See below:  Cardiff Records, Vol. 3 Margam Abbey Muniments. No. 1096. in printed catalogue. Matters sufficiente to be alledged for the disprovinge of the castle and towne of Cardief, and the lordships of Myskyn, Glynrothney, Sengunithe, Boviarton, Llanblethian, Rythin, Talvan, Kenfigge, Tyreyarlthe, Avon and Nethe, or any of them to be Lordshippes merchers.
NOTE the different spellings above.
Notes on Ieuan ap Gruffyd Gethyn, father of Mathew ap Ieuan:
Educated in the household of Enguerrand de Courcy, Earl of Bedford and at Oriel College, Oxford and followed the Earl of Bedford to lower Germany, fought at Buttisholz, was one of the executors of the Countess of Bedford, 1379, inherited Grosmont [which seems to have been restored to his father by John of Gaunt].  He was given the royal badge of the White Hart, 1396, and summoned to join Richard II at Carmarthen, 1399. "The Genealogical Magazine", reports that the Matthews lineage from Gwaithfoed through Sir David ap Mathew, Knight is recorded and approved as a manuscript in the British Records Office."  Sir Knight Ieuan ap Griffith Gethyn: Sir Knight Ieuan took over his grandfather’s Knights of St. John's known as Ieuan's Hospice. Was 7th Lord of Grosmont, M.A. Oriel College, Oxford.  NOTE:  Mathew of Llandaff, Radir, C. [Cardiff?]. This very ancient and long continuing family derived from Gwilyn [?], son of Gwaethfoed, Lord of Cardigan by Morfydd, dau. of Ynyr, King of Gwent, through Gruffydd Gethin, ranked as tenth from Gwaethfoed, Ivan [Ieuan] ap Gruffyd Gethin, who married Cecil, daug. and heiress of Watkin Llewelyn of Llandaff, of the lineage of Iestyn ap Gwrgan[t]. He settled at Llandaff, his son, Mathew ap Ieuan ap Gruffydd [Gethyn], and his Grandson, David Mathew, introduced the surname which never ceased for twelve generations. They intermarried with the Flemings of Flemingston, Morgans of Tredegar, Gamages of Coity, Stradlings of St. Donats, and branched off at early periods into the vigorous families of Mathew of Castell Menych (Monk's Castle) and Mathew of Radir, Mathew of Aberaman and Mathew of Sweldon and Llancalach, all of whom are now extinct.  The house of Llandaff supplied Sheriffs for Glamorgan in the years 1546, 1746 and member of Parliament in the person of Thomas Mathew, father and son in 1744, 1756. This same Thomas Mathew, Sen., of Llandaff, was Rear Admiral and Admiral of the White; and Thomas the son was a Major in the Army. In his election he polled 954 votes against 212 given for his opponent, Charles Van, Esq., by his wife, Anne, daughter of Robert Knight, Esq., of Sutturn, he had, besides several other children, a son, also named Thomas Mathew, Esq., of Llandaff. The Sheriff of 1769 who died 1771, s.p. the Mathews of Llandaff bore the arms of Gwaethfoed-or, a Lion rampany regardant sa. crowned GU).  GRIFFYTH Ieuan ap 148 1331 "For the tribe-land of Talvan" Francis Jones lists this Ieuan, together with several other generations, to be Knights of the Holy Sepulchre on the strength of the printed pedigree of Arnold Harris Mathew, de jure Earl of Llandaff, but emphasizes that this is not found in any other source.  The de jure Earl also marries him to 'Cecily f Sir Robert de Clare the de Clare of Scott's Marmion', which is entirely fanciful.  See Updating of Clark, p. 8. Steve Matthews Note:  I will note here that, in my humble opinion, the "Earl" du jure has a lucrative imagination.  File of twelve Acquittances on parchment, by "Robert de Prestebury, the lieutenant of Sir John Giffard de Brymesfeld, Custodian of the lands which were of Gilbert de Clare, formerly Earl of Gloucester and Hertford, in Glammorgan and Morgannou." Preceded by the Writ as follows: "Edward, by the grace of God King of England, Lord of Ireland and Duke of Aquitaine, unto his beloved and faithful John Giffard de Brymmesffeld, Custodian of the lands and tenements of Glanmorgan and Morgannou being in Our hands, Greeting. Whereas We have commanded the Collectors and Receivors of those sums of money which, by divers men in the parts aforesaid who with Lewelin Bren arose against Us in war and who afterwards came into Our peace and (good) will and were redeemed towards Us, ought to be levied to Our use, in Our name deputed, that they should deliver unto you, by indenture between you and them thereof to be made, all moneys of fines and such like redemptions in the lands aforesaid, which they have hitherto received and henceforth shall happen to collect and receive: We straitly command you that you receive from them, by indenture between you and them thereof to be made, all sums of money which the new Receivors will deliver unto you in this behalf, and that you safeguard them until you shall have other commands from Us concerning the same. Witness Myself at Westminster, the 19th day of June in the ninth year of Our reign. By the King Himself." [King Edward III]  [Fragment of yellow seal.] Acquittances. I. By Griffith ap Madoc [Father of Ieuan ap Gruffyd]. (Faint throughout.) II. "This Indenture witnesseth that Robert de Prestebury, the lieutenant of Sir John Giffard de Brimmesfeld, Custodian of Glamorgan and Morgannuck, hath received of Ririd Wych and his associates, Collectors of the fines of the tribe-land of Maghya, of the moiety of the fines and redemptions of divers men of the tribe-land of Maghya aforesaid, made before Sir William de Montague and his associates, Justices, in the ninth year of the reign of King Edward, son of King Edward, 195l. 13s. 4d., by occasion of the war waged by Lewelin Bren and his accomplices in the said parts of Glamorgan and Morgannouk; which said moiety ought to have been paid at the feast of Saint John Baptist next before the making of these presents, in the before-noted year. In witness whereof the said Robert and Ririd to this Indenture have set their alternate seals. Written at Kaerdyf on the twenty-first day of March in the tenth year of the reign of King Edward." [King Edward III]. The like, by Griffith Pencragh and his associates, Collectors, from the receipts of fines and redemptions of the men of the tribe-land of Kybour, who lately arose in war against our lord the King with Lewelin Bren. 194l. 2d.. IV. The like, by David ap Eynon, for the tribe-land of Bagh. 285l. 13s 6d.. V. The like, by Wilym Seys, for the tribe-land of Seinghenyth supra-kaach. 192l. 4s. 2d.. VI. The like, by David ap Aron, for the tribe-land of Glenrotheny. 302l. 11s. 8d.. VII. The like, by Howel Caagh [likely Goch], for the tribe-land of Meskyn. 381 L. 2s. 4d.. VIII. The like, by leuan ap Griffyth, for the tribe-land of Talvan. 164l. 9s. 2d.. IX. The like, by Llythan ap Maddok, for the tribe-land of Ruthyn. 80l. 14s.. X. The like, by Rosser ap Griffeth, for the tribe-land of Glinnogor. 115s. 4d.. XI. The like, by William ap Melyne, for the tribe-land of Tyerarlth, Egliskeynor and Court Colman. 228l. 5s. 10d.. XII. The like, by . . . . . Ener, for the tribe-land of Neeth. 191 L 7s. 10d.. (Partly illegible). From: 'Ministers' Accounts: 1331', Cardiff Records: volume 1 (1898), pp. 147-149. URL: http://www.british-history.ac.uk/report.aspx?compid=48084. Date accessed: 08 July 2008.  Please Note we are talking about Tribe-land.  This is land long-held by the old Welsh Tribes.  "Lordshippes Merchers" land.  See below:  Cardiff Records, Vol. 3 Margam Abbey Muniments. No. 1096. in printed catalogue. Matters sufficiente to be alledged for the disprovinge of the castle and towne of Cardief, and the lordships of Myskyn, Glynrothney, Sengunithe, Boviarton, Llanblethian, Rythin, Talvan, Kenfigge, Tyreyarlthe, Avon and Nethe, or any of them to be Lordshippes merchers, And to prove them before the Purchasses therof made by the earle of Penbroke to be members only of the lordshipe mercher of Glamorgan and Morgannocke and inferior lordshipes to the same, And under the jurisdiction of that courte.  Markes whereby a lordship mercher is perfectly knowen. From: 'Margam Abbey muniments: Select documents to 1568', Cardiff Records: volume 3 (1901), pp. 270-294. URL: http://www.british-history.ac.uk/report.aspx?compid=48163. Date accessed: 08 July 2008. See extensive discussion of Lords Marchers here: http://www.british-history.ac.uk/report.aspx?compid=48163

Notes on Gruffyd Gethyn ap Madog:
Summoned as one of the Barons of Glamorgan, 1368.  Was at feud in 1363 with the de Avene about his mother's dowry, at Kenfig. Sir Griffith Gethyn, ranked as tenth from Gwaethfoed, born abt. 1325 in Coity, Glamorgan, was knighted by King Henry II, while in Ireland. Was also Knight of the Holy Sepulchor (not substantiated), married (1) (Joan) or Crisly ferch Rhum, born 1329 in Castell Kibwr, Glamorgan, daughter of Rhun ap Griffith Ychan ap Grono of the line of Bleddwn ap Cynfyn and (2) Margaret ferch Bryn ap George. Sir Griffith Gethyn and Crisly had at least three sons. Knighted by Henry II in the wars in Ireland.  6th Lord of Grosmont. See Updating of Clark & Bartrum.

Some examples:
Maghya aka Magyar
According to András Róna-Tas the locality in which the Hungarians, the Manicha-Er group, emerged was between the Volga River and the Ural Mountains. Between the 8th and 5th centuries BC, the Magyars embarked upon their independent existence and the early period of the proto-Hungarian language began
Around 830 AD, the seven related tribes (JenőKérKesziKürt-GyarmatMegyerNyék and Tarján) formed a confederation in Etelköz, called "Hétmagyar" ("Seven Magyars"). Their leaders, the Seven chieftains of the Magyars, besides Álmos, included Előd, Ond, Kond, Tas, Huba and Töhötöm, who took a blood oath, swearing eternal loyalty to Álmos. Presumably, the Magyar tribes consisted of 108 clans

See also:
Southern districts of Bihar, eastern Patna District, northern Chotanagpur Division; West Bengal, Malda District. Alternate names: MAGADHI, MAGAYA, MAGHAYA, MAGHORI, MAGI, MAGODHI, BIHARI. Dialects: SOUTHERN MAGAHI, NORTHERN MAGAHI, CENTRAL MAGAHI. Classification: Indo-European, Indo-Iranian, Indo-Aryan, Eastern zone, Bihari. More information.
NOTE: MAGI
Kybour or Kabars
The Kabars consisted of three Khazar tribes who rebelled against the Khazar Khaganate sometime in the ninth century; the rebellion was notable enough to be described in Constantine Porphyrogenitus's work De Administrando Imperio. Subsequently the Kabars were expelled from the Khazar Khaganate and sought refuge by joining the Magyar tribal confederacy called Hét-Magyar (meaning "seven Hungarians"). The three Kabar tribes accompanied the Magyar invasion of Pannonia and the subsequent formation of the Principality of Hungary in the late 9th century.

This is Cibwyr in Welsh. See also Gerberi. See also Gomer, Kybor, Khumri, City of Gomara [As written about by Ptolemy], Ghumry or Ghumri, Gimir.
Bagh (Persianباغ‎‎, meaning "garden") may refer to:
·         Bagh, Ardabil, a village in Iran
·         Bagh, Firuzabad, a village in Fars Province, Iran
·         Bagh, Larestan, a village in Fars Province, Iran
·         Bagh, Mamasani, a village in Fars Province, Iran
·         Bagh, Gilan, a village in Iran
·         Bagh, alternate name of Bagh Chamak, a village in Kerman Province, Iran
·         Bagh, Khuzestan, a village in Iran
·         Bagh, Lorestan, a village in Iran
·         Bagh, North Khorasan, a village in Iran
·         Bagh, South Khorasan, a village in Iran
·         Bagh, West Azerbaijan, a village in Iran
·         Bagh-e Olya (disambiguation)
·         Bagh-e Sofla (disambiguation)
·         Bagh, alternate name of Bagh-e Latifan, a village in Iran
·         Bagh, alternate name of Bagh-e Sofla, Lorestan, a village in Iran
·         Bagh, Azad Kashmir, a town in Azad Kashmir, Pakistan
·         Bagh Valley
·         Bagh District, a district in Azad Kashmir, Pakistan
·         Bagh, Dhar, a town in Madhya Pradesh, India
·         Bagh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a union council in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
·         Bagh (garden), a special type of garden common to near, middle and south eastern Asian countries
Bagh City (Urduباغ ) is the chief town and district headquarters of the Bagh District, in Azad KashmirPakistan. The town is situated on the confluence of two small nullahs, Malwani & Mall. Some of the most remarkable ancient artwork of Madhya Pradesh is found in caves. The Bagh caves, near the western town of Mhow, are adorned with paintings on Buddhist topics that date roughly to the 5th century ce. Stemming from about the same period (4th to 7th century) are the Udayagiri caves (Brahmanical and Jaina monasteries), near Vidisha, which exhibit artwork and rock-cut architecture...
Meskin aka Mishkyn from Muski may refer to:
·         Meskin, ethnic Jewish surname
·         Meskin, Gilan, a village in Gilan Province, Iran
·         Boneh-ye Meskin, a village in Khuzestan Province, Iran
·         Meskin, Sistan and Baluchestan, a village in Sistan and Baluchestan Province, Iran
·         Meskin, West Azerbaijan, a village in West Azerbaijan Province, Iran
Mushki
Armenia, then called Biaini by the natives, has a history going back to about 6,000 BC.  Armenians are thought to be a blend of four tribes:  Hurrian, Urartu (from Ararat), Luvians and Mushki.  Luvian is aka Luwian and Luiya.  Mushki is aka Merkezi, Moschi, etc.  This area is often referred to as Eastern Anatolia historically.
Armenia, then called Biaini by the natives, has a history going back to about 6,000 BC. Armenians are thought to be a blend of four tribes: Hurrian, Urartu (from Ararat), Luvians and Mushki. Luvian is aka Luwian and Luiya. Mushki is aka Merkezi, Moschi, etc. This area is often referred to as Eastern Anatolia historically.
The Mushki (Muški) were an Iron Age people of Anatolia, known from Assyrian sources. They do not appear in Hittite records. Several authors have connected them with the Moschoi (Μόσχοι) of Greek sources and the Georgian tribe of the Meskhi. Josephus Flavius identified the Moschoi with the Biblical Meshech. Two different groups are called Muški in the Assyrian sources (Diakonoff 1984:115), one from the 12th to 9th centuries, located near the confluence of the Arsanias and the Euphrates ("Eastern Mushki"), and the other in the 8th to 7th centuries, located in Cilicia ("Western Mushki"). Assyrian sources identify the Western Mushki with the Phrygians, while Greek sources clearly distinguish between Phrygians and Moschoi.
Identification of the Eastern with the Western Mushki is uncertain, but it is of course possible to assume a migration of at least part of the Eastern Mushki to Cilicia in the course of the 10th to 8th centuries, and this possibility has been repeatedly suggested, variously identifying the Mushki as speakers of a Georgian, Armenian or Anatolian idiom.

Moschia is a mountainous region of Armenia between Iberia, Armenia, and Colchis. The Moschian Mountains were the connecting chain between the Caucasus and Anti Taurus Mountains. The people of that area were known as the Moschi aka above.
Talvan, Talyvan, Tal y Van Tribe
The Mathew family [Wales] was mentioned in the King’s [England] writings as being of the ancient Talyvan Tribe [Ieuan ap Gruffudd Gethyn].  Iestyn ap Gwrgan too was specifically mentioned as from this tribe.  Iestyn is, in fact, be in direct descent of this line.  Ieuan ap Mathew married a descendant of Iestyn—what would be a distant relative. This tribe is written in many ways:  Tal y Van, Talavan, Tal a van, Tal avon or avan, etc.  There is an Avon River in Wales, most likely named by/for this tribe, as well as the Avan or Avon Tribe.
Annals & Antiquities of the Counties and County Families of Wales, Thomas Nicholas, p. 575:
When we speak of a family which has descended through many generations being of a particular race or nationality, the statement must be taken as subject to qualification.  Above (in the book itself), families have been described as Norman, although in some cases the very origin was doubtful, and in almost all, through the intermarriages of many successions, the prevailing blood had become that of the native race.  And now that we speak of families of British descent, it is not to be forgotten that in many cases the Celtic blood, at first somewhat pure, had through frequent union with English and Anglo-Norman become considerably mixed.  Thus the Mathew of Llandaff intermarry with the Gamage and Stradling houses; the Cradocks with the Mansels and Walshes, &c.  But the well-known physiological law of the prevalence of the stronger or less intermittent race would secure in the British families a nearer adherence to the original type than would occur with the Anglo-Norman houses, excepting those originally of the Celtic race.
But in most cases a fact of interest is suggested respecting the ethnological character of the Glamorgan population, especially the better class families, viz., that they are of mixed derivation in an unusual degree.  This fact, obvious from the simple records of alliances, is testified by the frequent occurrence of that Scandinavian light complexion which gave Rufus the name of “red”, and which prevails in the Scottish highlands and islands settled upon by the Danes.  That this colour is not more abundant in Glamorgan is owing to the neutralizing power of the Silurian and Celtic [a term that is a misnomer] swarthiness, which, if foreign intrusion through modern immigration did not favour its rival, would in course of time regain the hold it had in the age of Tacitus (Vit. Agric., xi.) and raise anew in some minds the conjecture that the people of Gwent and Glamorgan were of Iberian origin, relations of the Spanish race. Were we Silures?  I think Thomas Nicholas thought it so.

Lake of the Van (formerly Nairi Sea)
[This was the tribe of my ancestors. Ieuan ap Gruffudd Gethyn was my 15th G-Grandfather. He was the son of Gruffudd Gethyn ap Madog. Madog aka Madawg aka Madoc, etc. was the Old Welsh appellation for Mathew, the original modern spelling. His son, Mathew ap Ieuan, was the first to use the modern spelling, Mathew. Sir Knight Mathew, 10th Lord of Grosmont, 1380-1419, was buried in Llandaff Cathedral in 1424. It was his two sons, Robert and Daffyd, that eventually "removed to" Ireland to help establish the "Plantations" c. 1607. Some of the descendants of Daffyd were consigned to establish the Jamestown Plantations. The descendants of both Daffyd and Robert left for the USA in 1718/ 19. Other descendants of Robert were some of the original settlers in Australia]. I have 67 Marker Matches from both lines, the latest from Co. Cork. I know the branch that went to Cork—the line from Daffydd. I have matches from Robert’s line in Australia, Antrim, etc. This is no longer a mystery, it is now known.
Glen Rotheny aka Glyn Rothney
Roth is a District in present day Bavaria
Rüthen is a town in the district of Soest, in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany.
From the Tribe of Ruth--Ruthin?
Roth is a district in Mittelfranken, Bavaria, Germany. It is bounded by the districts of Nürnberger Land, Neumarkt, Eichstätt, Weißenburg-Gunzenhausen, Ansbach and Fürth, and the cities of Schwabach and Nürnberg.

Capital: Roth, Bavaria
Population: 123,431 (2013)
Administrative region: Middle Franconia
Glyn N’ogor or Glynn Ogor                                
Ogor is a town in Russia. Ogor and Uighur are one in the same, known later as Avares.  They were also known as Ougouri.
Tyer Arlth aka Tyre y Arlthe or Arleth
Tyari? Tyre?  Arleth is “free man” in German—associated with Tyre in Lebanon.
Eglis Keynor or Kynor or Kynar or Cynar
Gedor? A place name in the East Bank
Senghe Nythe, supra-kaach, aka Sengu Nithe aka Seinghenyth
See Neeth or Netha or Neath.
Neth er land?
Kenfigge aka Kenfig aka Cynffig
Cyn = Before  [Welsh]
Ffig = Fig   [Welsh]
Original tribal lands yet unknown.
Avon aka Avan
Van District in present Turkey
Lake of the Van (formerly Nairi Sea)
Boviar[ton]
Later Boverton, a castle and town in S Wales
Bavaria?
Llan Blethian aka Blethyn
This notable Welsh surname is a patronymic form of the medieval male given name "Ble(i)ddyn", originally a byname meaning "wolf cub", from "blaidd", wolf, plus the diminutive suffix "yn". Heroes of medieval Wales were often referred to as "Blaidd", although the term was also something used to describe a cruel man, or one who pretended friendship while remaining an enemy.
Read more: http://www.surnamedb.com/Surname/Blethyn#ixzz2wEhtoswV
Llan or Lan is a common place name element in Brythonic languages such as Welsh, Cornish, Breton, Cumbric, and possibly Pictish. In Wales there are over 630 place names beginning with 'Llan', pronounced [ɬan]. In Cornwall and Brittany the element is usually spelled 'Lan' or 'Lann', occasionally 'Laun'. The original meaning of llan in Welsh is "an enclosed piece of land", but it later evolved to mean the parish surrounding a church. Most places beginning with Llan have some connection to a saint, usually of the Celtic church.

[Llans were called Glebes in England and the Colonial USA]

The above speak to both origins and “dispersement” or diaspora. Make of it what you will. I hesitate to wonder—are the Taliban my cousins? I may have a photo taken with a turban and we can all decide LOL