Thursday, February 4, 2010

Stagflation - The Real Recession

Stagflation

I remember every minute of this recession[s] and we were scared to death. It was actually a 16 year recession with minor quarterly up-ticks in the interim. It started in 1967 and remained until 1983. It was a scary time. The term Stagflation was coined during this time: 13.5% inflation and 8.5% unemployment, for a total of 22%. It was unprecedented and nothing has even come close since. The T-Bond actually got to a high of 15.3%, price per bbl of oil got to $104.60 in 2007 dollars.

Some economists of the day argued that this was at least as bad as a depression--contraction, deflation and high unemployment. They were perplexed about inflation, due to lack of knowledge of the money supply side of the ledger, and were unable to get it under control. There is really no significant inflationary pressure today so you are really talking about a 9.4% rate of stagflation today compared to 22% in the REAL recession.

Now that was a recession[s]!!! This current recession is merely a pimple on the butt of that one. It is amazing to me that 90% of Americans do not even know the definition of a recession. It was formerly 3 consecutive quarters of downturn in GNP. The morons now say it is 2 consecutive quarters. To come out of a recession, we must have 2 consecutive quarters of GNP growth—I say 3 quarters. See Ben Bernanke’s quote in the following article and tell me how you feel about his veracity now. This White House must think we are as stupid as they are. I don’t even know anyone this stupid.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/1970-stagflation.asp

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